Date & Time: Munich (6 pm), Los Angeles (9 am), Cincinnati (12 pm), Bath (5 pm), Singapore (February 17, 1 am), Beijing (February 17, 1 am), Sydney (February 17, 4 am)

Marina Henke will present her paper titled "The Psychology of Limited Nuclear War: Experimental evidence on public emotions after an escalate to de-escalate strike".

Abstract of the Paper:
International security theorists spend much time studying scenarios of plausible nuclear weapons use. Most such scenarios involve the usage of strategic nuclear weapons in a large-scale war. However, already during the Cold War other scenarios were developed that involved a limited nuclear strike. First and foremost a psychological strategy, limited nuclear war plays with the fear of a nuclear Armageddon. In this present moment, many scholars and practitioners suggest that Russia follows such strategy: it might detonate a tactical nuclear weapon over an uninhabited area with the hope of deterring NATO intervention/interference e.g., in the Baltic states or Ukraine. Russia thus speculates that images of a mushroom cloud on TV screens might cause panic and disarray among NATO member state governments stifling a possible NATO response. But is such NATO reaction preordained? How would the publics in NATO member states react to the explosion of a Russian tactical nuclear weapon? This paper addresses this question. By means of a representative survey experiment in Germany and the United States, it demonstrates that an “escalate to de-escalate” strike evokes more anger (than fear) and this emotional response has an independent impact on the policy preferences of the survey participants. These findings have important theoretical and policy implications. 

Chair: Kai A. Konrad, Co-Chair: Subhasish Chowdhury